Obama Tops Clinton in `Critical' Iowa Race, Poll Says (Update1)

By Heidi Przybyla

Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama has edged ahead of Hillary Clinton in Iowa's first-in-the-nation presidential contest, according to a new poll that suggests her commanding advantage in the Democratic nomination race is slipping.

The Nov. 14-18 Washington Post/ABC News poll showed Obama backed by 30 percent of Iowa Democrats, Clinton with 26 percent and John Edwards with 22 percent. Obama had a 1 point lead over Clinton in July. Among Democrats who said they're ``absolutely certain'' to vote, Obama's lead over Clinton narrowed to 2 points. The results were within the polls' error margins.

``Iowa Democrats obviously have more mixed feelings about Senator Clinton than Democrats nationally do,'' said Dennis Goldford, a politics professor at Drake University in Des Moines.

As the first test, Iowa has a disproportionate influence in the Democratic race; if Clinton, a New York senator, wins the state's Jan. 3 caucuses it may be very difficult for any other candidate to take the nomination away from her.

``Hillary Clinton, running the kind of campaign that she's run, coming out of Iowa with a decisive victory would be hard to stop,'' said Mike Feldman, a Democratic strategist who isn't aligned with any candidate.

Alternatively, a win in Iowa by Illinois Senator Obama, 46, could provide momentum for an upset victory in New Hampshire, which is likely to hold its primary just five days after the Iowa contest.

New Hampshire Primary

``An Obama victory coming so close to the New Hampshire primary might very well reconfigure the race,'' said Bill Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington who is supporting Clinton.

It could also puncture a perception among some Democrats that Clinton, 60, is the party's inevitable nominee, said Nathan Gonzales, political editor at the Washington-based Rothenberg Political Report. An average of other recent polls in Iowa shows Clinton with a small lead over Obama and Edwards.

``Iowa is critical,'' Gonzales said. ``She's competing against very high expectations.''

Finally, an Obama win may create a new stream of campaign funding if he is perceived in December as having a real shot at the nomination. Fundraising figures show Obama lost his money edge in September, when Clinton began to be viewed as the inevitable candidate. Both Clinton and Obama have raised about $80 million for the primaries. Between July and September, however, Clinton brought in close to $24 million while Obama raised $20 million.

Debate Criticism

Clinton began to run into political trouble after an Oct. 30 Philadelphia debate in which she was criticized by her opponents and stumbled in her responses to questions about immigration and other issues. ``I wasn't at my best,'' she told CNN after that debate.

In the four weeks following Iowa and New Hampshire, voters will go to the polls in more than 25 states, from California to New Jersey. The candidates with the most money and momentum emerging from the early contests will enjoy a distinct advantage in these races.

Both Democrats and Republicans plan to pour a fortune in campaign cash into Iowa over the next six weeks. Clinton and Obama could each spend as much as $15 million in the state.

There are also huge stakes for Edwards, a former North Carolina senator who led a series of attacks on Clinton last month. Edwards, 54, has built his entire campaign on using Iowa as a springboard to victory in other states as he lacks the campaign funds to compete directly with Clinton nationally.

``Edwards is in a sense on a ventilator in Iowa,'' Goldford said. ``He'll have to shut off the ventilator and call it if he doesn't win.''

The Post/ABC poll surveyed 500 Iowans deemed likely to vote in the caucuses.

To contact the reporter on this story: Heidi Przybyla in Washington at hprzybyla@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: November 20, 2007 05:21 EST