Sen. Hillary Clinton losing her base

Amos A. Ajo

Barack Obama’s Potomac sweep, though not a surprise, was a blow to Hillary Clinton’s camp, but his margins of victory and the groups that contributed to his solid wins in all three primaries were surprising. While Hillary Clinton’s campaign continues to focus its spin on the New York senator’s chances in upcoming delegate-rich primaries in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, Obama’s string of eight consecutive victories illustrates a larger problem for Clinton: she is starting to lose her base.

Claims that Clinton holds an advantage in a general election did not sway primary voters in Virginia and Maryland. In those two states, the same demographic groups that have pushed Clinton to victories in California and New York voted for Obama instead of the former First Lady. In Virginia, Obama beat Clinton by 28 percentage points, capturing 64% of the vote. In Maryland, Obama’s edge was 24 percentage points, and in the predominately African-American District of Columbia, the Illinois senator’s vote total was three times Clinton’s, raking in 75% of all ballots cast.

Exit polls conducted by CNN illustrate Clinton’s biggest problems. In Virginia and Maryland, Obama outperformed Clinton among women, seniors (those over 60), and voters with annual incomes below $50,000, three groups that helped Clinton to her most significant primary wins in New York and California. Another group that supported Clinton on Feb. 5 but appears to be moving towards Obama is white voters; who preferred Obama by 5 percentage points in Maryland and were split 50-50 in Virginia. The Illinois senator also had more support among union households on Tuesday.

A contributing force for Obama in Virginia was early turnout and the state’s new Governor, Tim Kaine, who showed he could get his supporters to vote for Obama. Although Kaine may be too inexperienced to round out Obama’s ticket should the Illinois senator win the nomination, he will play a key role for either Democrat come November.

The shake-up at the Clinton campaign continued yesterday as Mike Henry, Clinton’s deputy campaign manager, resigned. The “party line” is that Henry moved as a sign of respect for Clinton’s new leadership team, led by new campaign manager Maggie Williams. The new crew has its hands full as it tries to head off Obama’s momentum, and gears up for what could be pivotal Ohio and Texas contests on March 4.
In the Feb. 12 primaries, Hillary Clinton lost the projected lead in both the overall delegate count and delegate count from the popular vote, and she must regroup if she wants to reverse her fortunes.

RealClearPolitics is now keeping track of the national popular vote in addition to the total delegate count. Even if the votes from disputed elections in Florida and Michigan are included, Obama’s 9,923,921 votes give him a lead of over 75,000 voters. If you exclude the votes from those two states—which went to Clinton—his lead balloons to nearly 700,000. These totals include representative votes from the caucuses, a format that has heavily favored Obama.